THE DANGERS OF LUCK

We have probably all heard the phrase 'Fate is a cruel mistress', but what about Lady Luck? Surely she is on our side...

...Well, yes and no. I'm not the superstitious type by any stretch of the imagination, instead opting to rely on solid stats and past performance. However, when in comes to betting investment, all strategies experience winning and losing runs. This could be seen as periods of being 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.  

 

Today's question is - Which is the most damaging of the two?

An easy question to answer, some might say, but I'm going to be controversial and challenge what seems to be obvious. To explain this better, let's look at what actions punters are likely to take in each situation:

 

The losing or 'unlucky' run. A serious punter would firstly try to pinpoint what the cause is. This may include scrutinisation of each days bets to identify possible weaknesses in their betting methods. More than likely new angles and ways to improve current strategies will be found.

There's also a likelihood of reduced spending, both with betting stakes and personal spends, without an additional income coming in during the losing run.

 

The winning or 'lucky' run. The punter will count their winnings, probably several times. There is likely to be feelings of elation, and an increase in confidence, leading to increased stakes and number of bets. This tends to filter into personal spending, on luxury items, social spending, holidays, you name it.

 

It doesn't take a genius to see which is the more constructive use of our time. And of course the above actions have consequences. Both winning streaks and losing runs inevitably come to an end, more often than not to be replaced by the other. This will in turn end, and so the cycle continues.

These cycles of winning and losing can be seen clearly in the results graph for our 2015/16 festival racing strategy:

Although the long term trend is upward, there are clear losing periods which can last several months. It is much the same with the vast majority of profitable betting strategies, although we can reduce the length of losing periods by using several strategies together in a betting portfolio.

 

It follows therefore that when the 'lucky' punters luck comes to an end, in many cases a large amount of the profit has already been spent. Add to this that they are likely to be heading into a losing run with a larger number of bets at increased stakes.

Conversely, the 'unlucky' punter's luck is about to change for the better. If they have managed to survive the losing run, they will have greater knowledge, improved betting strategies and greater discipline which will undoubtedly improve their betting success in the future.

 

So what's the solution? In my opinion, be very wary of the so called 'Lady Luck'. While she may bring short term riches, those unprepared for her absence usually lose money in the long run.

The wise punter is mindful of their betting activities and spending throughout the winning periods, so that when the losing runs appear they have the knowledge, bankroll and discipline to survive until 'Lady Luck' appears once more.

  • I have been an avid Horse Racing enthusiast from a young age, and now have over 12 years experience in the industry. After leaving a dead end job to work as a full time Horse Racing Investor, I founded Lucrative Racing Trust in 2011. The company focuses on teaching people how to create a supplemental income from betting investment, providing greater financial freedom in a time of economic uncertainty.
    Name Michael - Director, Lucrative Racing