ROYAL ASCOT 2018
TOP 5 JOCKEYS TO FOLLOW
During my usual research in the run up to Royal Ascot 2018, I stumbled across an interesting shortlist of Jockeys, all of whom have have put in an excellent performance during the festival over the past five years.
In fact, if we'd simply backed all horses ridden by these jockeys at Royal Ascot in previous years, we'd have came out with a pretty impressive profit, even at Betfair Start Price.
So without further ado, here are my five top jockeys to follow for this years festival, in descending order of return on investment:
1. Martin Harley
Although the strike rate has historically been low, a profit of 26.83 points at Betfair SP and a ROI of 60.98% make a strong case for backing Harley at this years festival.
2. Adam Kirby
Kirby has won a slightly higher number of races at the festival, although the strike rate is still relatively low. Nevertheless, he would have secured us an impressive 33.64 points profit at Betfair SP, and a ROI of 53.4%.
3. Ryan Moore
Mr Moore is arguably the most talented jockey riding today, and despite the fact that he is often over bet by the general public, he has still managed to produce the highest Betfair SP profit out of the five - 42.13 points.
An ROI of 28.85% could have been boosted significantly to 64.82% by only backing horses who are also trained by A P Obrien, while reducing the volume of bets from 146 down to just 61.
4. Jamie Spencer
Although an overall profit has not been seen by Spencer at Industry start price, betting on the exchange would have netted us 19.06 points to date, and a respectable ROI of 20.07%.
If we add an additional rule to only include horses who have raced in the last 30 days, our ROI would have increased to 48.62% and reduced the number of bets to 48.
5. William Buick
Our final jockey to follow has also failed to see a profit at Industry SP, possibly due to being over-bet, but has still managed to return 17.08 points at Betfair SP.
Similarly to Moore, adding a trainer rule improves the performance somewhat. Combining Buick with trainer Charlie Appleby would have increased our profit to 25.37 points, and ROI to 55.16%.
An initial concern is the general low winning strike rate of these jockeys, save for Ryan Moore. However, it's important to point out that the higher number of runners per race throughout much of the festival, means the odds received are generally more generous.
And overall, these five jockeys have accrued 138.74 points over the past five years at Betfair SP, without the addition of the further rules mentioned above.
The represents an average of 27.75 points per festival, or £555 to a level £20 stake, which I'm sure we can agree isn't half bad for for five days "work".
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