Why Do 1% Succeed And 99% Fail? ...
It’s a Mystery...
You’d think at least 10% or 20% of punters would be able to come out on top…
But no, the odds are stacked well against us, and that means that if we want to start winning consistently, it’s essential that we get to the bottom of this mystery…
Hello, Michael from Lucrative Racing here, and today I’d like to share with you a few of the major pitfalls I’ve fallen into, on my long search for the thing that eludes 99% of us...substantial betting profit.
Hopefully I can give you some useful pointers on the common mistakes that leave the majority of us out of pocket…
And the strategies 1% of punters use, that enable them to consistently come out on top...
So let’s put our detective hats on, and dive on in…
The first pitfall I fell into occurred not long after I first started betting…
I was using a tipster service I’d found online, which provided one or two bets each day for UK horse racing...
Being young and inexperienced, I started out staking £10 per bet, without giving much thought to setting aside a bankroll, or using a fixed staking plan...
After seeing a small profit after my first week, the service hit a run of losers, wiping out my profit and leaving me out of pocket by nearly £200…
Before I knew it, I was staking £20 per bet, and when the results didn’t pick up, I even went up to £50 for a few days...
And then, after I’d maxed out my £1,000 overdraft, I ran out of money…
What on Earth just happened? …
Well, as it turns out, betting can be quite addictive (I know, shock!)...
And it’s addictive because we attach strong emotions to the outcome...
The feeling attached to winning or losing money is particularly strong, due to it’s perceived importance…
This is why most of us find it hard to stop when we are winning…
It’s also why we feel that urge to chase our losses, when we are losing…
The 99% bet emotionally, and chase their losses.
On the other hand…
The 1% don’t let their emotions control their actions, and therefore never chase losses.
Admittedly, there may be a small percentage of people who aren’t able to get over this hurdle, and would do best to avoid betting altogether…
However, the majority of us can learn to overcome this tendency, with practise…
Have we solved the mystery already? ...
Probably not...
Although this is clearly one of the major pitfalls for the casual or inexperienced punter, I’m sure many of you reading this already have your emotions well in check...
So let’s continue our search, the game is afoot...
Soon after I’d started using my own betting methods, I stumbled into another major pitfall...
I’d built and paper traded a new racing system, that was showing a 50 point profit over a 6 month period, and had a 25% winning strike rate.
So I decided to test it out for real...
Again, I opted to stake £10 per bet, and still being somewhat inexperienced at this point, thought a 50 point bankroll would be sufficient to cover potential runs of losing bets.
Unfortunately for me, this system also ran into a major losing run not long after I started, and just five weeks in, I’d lost my full £500 bankroll. Being a student at the time, it was really more than I could afford to lose...
This is a pitfall most of us run into into at some point...
The 99% stake too much of their bankroll per bet to cover losing runs.
To find out how the 1% avoid this pitfall, I did some research on strike rate and the likely length of losing runs…
Here are the results. My 25% strike rate translates to a maximum losing run of around 24 bets. But that’s only half the story…
In betting, it’s fairly common to see more than one losing run over a fairly short sequence of bets...
And to succeed, we must be prepared for this eventuality...
The 1% use a bankroll that will survive at least four maximum losing runs.
Realising my error, I had the option to suck it up, and invest another £500…
This would provide me with the 100 point bankroll that I really should have used from the outset...
But I didn’t. I was too afraid of losing more money...
Instead, I continued tracking the bets on paper only, and to add insult to injury, after a 70 point loss...
The performance began to improve, and two months later, the system was showing an overall 30 point profit…
Not only had I needlessly lost £500, I’d also missed out on £300 profit…
So here’s another common pitfall...
The 99% quit when the going gets tough.
For most of us, there’s a limit to the size of losing runs we’re willing to put up with…
So how many losing bets in a row can you handle? …
In a recent survey, the majority of people reported being able to handle losing runs of 15 - 20 bets, as long as it didn’t happen too often…
If thats sounds anything like you, it would be wise to choose a strategy with a 30% - 40% strike rate...
The 1% work within their limits, and stick to their guns during losing runs…
So far, we’ve covered keeping emotions in check, betting within our means, carefully calculating our risk, and perseverance…
All are essential skills in the pursuit of betting profit...
But if at this point you’re thinking “Elementary, my dear Watson”…
Allow me to share one final story, that may give an insight into why even the most experienced of punters continue to lose more than they win…
I have a friend who runs a bookie stall at a few major UK racecourses...
The first time I saw him at the course, he let me in on his banker bet for the day…
Which, as it so happens, ran a blinder and won easily. But that’s not the interesting part...
He said something to me, that at the time I thought was a bit odd. He said...
“If you’re having a bet, place it here. We give better odds than most the other stalls”…
Intrigued, I asked him…
“Why would you want me to bet here, if the horse is likely to win? Won’t you lose money?”
To which he replied...
“It makes no difference mate, I lay them off and secure a profit no matter what.”
The important message I took home from this encounter was…
The bookmaker formulates their odds to guarantee their profit.
This is commonly called the over-round, and if you’ve been in the betting game for a while, chances are you’re already well aware of this…
But, you may not be fully aware of the implications of this over-round…
The fact of the matter is, If the odds we take are lower than the true chance of our bet winning, we are always going to end up losing more than we win in the long run…
The 99% place the majority of their bets at low value odds.
But as it happens, the bookie firms don’t get their odds right all of the time…
And in my experience, even betting exchanges like Betfair, where are odds are usually more accurate, get it wrong at least 5% of the time…
This opens up a window of opportunity, for the shrewd punter to secure a profit…
The 1% place the majority of their bets at high value odds.
This is the basis for pretty much every successful betting method or tipster service you’d care to name…
And although many of these methods don’t directly focus on the odds, the method invariably identifies bets where the odds are more likely to be in our favour...
The majority of my betting profit this year has been found by a shortlist of horses, that I take an hour or two to create each morning…
I’d like the opportunity to share more about this shortlist with you in the near future, but this is getting a bit long so I’m going to wrap it up here for today…
I have more great freebies to send you soon, so if you want those be sure to keep an eye out for my next email...
Thanks for taking the time to read my report; I hope you’ve found it useful.
Speak soon,
Michael