We have probably all heard the phrase 'Fate is a cruel mistress', but what about Lady Luck? Surely she is on our side...
...Well, yes and no. I'm not the superstitious type by any stretch of the imagination, instead opting to rely on solid stats and past performance. However, when in comes to betting investment, all strategies experience winning and losing runs. This could be seen as periods of being 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.
Today's question is - Which is the most damaging of the two?
An easy question to answer, some might say, but I'm going to be controversial and challenge what seems to be obvious. To explain this better, let's look at what actions punters are likely to take in each situation:
The losing or 'unlucky' run. A serious punter would firstly try to pinpoint what the cause is. This may include scrutinisation of each days bets to identify possible weaknesses in their betting methods. More than likely new angles and ways to improve current strategies will be found.
There's also a likelihood of reduced spending, both with betting stakes and personal spends, without an additional income coming in during the losing run.
The winning or 'lucky' run. The punter will count their winnings, probably several times. There is likely to be feelings of elation, and an increase in confidence, leading to increased stakes and number of bets. This tends to filter into personal spending, on luxury items, social spending, holidays, you name it.
It doesn't take a genius to see which is the more constructive use of our time. And of course the above actions have consequences. Both winning streaks and losing runs inevitably come to an end, more often than not to be replaced by the other. This will in turn end, and so the cycle continues.
These cycles of winning and losing can be seen clearly in the results graph for our 2015/16 festival racing strategy: